Market Drops Sharply Amid NFP Data and Anticipated BTC Sell-Off; AI Remains a Hot Topic | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: January 6–10, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

• Market Overview: The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.3 trillion, with BTC dominance at 56.82% ($1.88 trillion). Stablecoin market cap totals $206.1 billion, down 0.14% over the past week, with USDT accounting for 66.82%.
• Price Trends: BTC price experienced a downward trend, currently at $94,496, while ETH showed upward momentum, now at $3,247.
• Top Movers:
• XDC: +13.75% (7 day change)
• AI16Z: -34.42% (7 day change)
• FARTCOIN: -45.9% (7 day change)
• BIO: -45.2% (7 day change)
• ETF Flows:
• BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow: $496.6M
• ETH Spot ETF Net Outflow: $195.3M
• Sentiment: The “Fear & Greed Index” for January 11 stands at 69, indicating a shift from last week. Sentiment breakdown: 6 days Greed, 1 day Neutral.

Market Outlook

This week’s market decline was driven by several factors, including weaker-than-expected NFP data, the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates in January, and the U.S. Department of Justice’s approval to sell $6.5 billion in BTC. While AI-related projects performed relatively well, stablecoin market cap declined. Market recovery is expected to be gradual, with significant improvement potentially linked to policy shifts under Trump’s administration. AI-focused projects remain a key area to watch.

Weekly Highlights

1. Raydium Surpasses Uniswap: On January 5, DefiLlama reported Raydium’s 24-hour trading volume at $2.286 billion, surpassing Uniswap’s $2.131 billion.
2. BioDAO Launch: Bio Protocol announced on January 6 the launch of BioDAO, enabling BIO token holders to participate in initiatives like Launchpad and liquidity management.
3. AI Agent Hackathon: EigenLayer and Eliza Labs (AI16ZDAO) announced a joint hackathon from February 22 to March 3, 2025, in Denver, Colorado.
4. Strategic BTC Reserve: Dennis Porter shared on January 7 that a 14th U.S. state is considering legislation to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves.
5. Aave V3 on Aptos Testnet: Aave V3 deployed on Aptos testnet, marking the protocol’s first non-EVM deployment.
6. DOJ BTC Sale Approval: The U.S. DOJ gained approval on January 9 to sell $6.5 billion worth of BTC linked to the Silk Road case.
7. UK Clarifies POS Staking Rules: On January 10, the UK Treasury revised financial regulations, exempting POS staking from collective investment scheme classification.
8. Russia Sells Seized BTC: Russia began liquidating BTC seized in a 2023 investigation, signaling a move to convert over 1,000 BTC into fiat.
9. Trump’s Legal Ruling: On January 10, a New York court ruled in Trump’s favor, dismissing potential penalties due to his transitional presidency status.

Macroeconomic Developments

1. Federal Reserve Outlook: CME FedWatch Tool on January 8 indicated a 95.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged in January.
2. Coinbase Legal Victory: On January 8, Coinbase won a key appeal motion, pausing SEC-related lawsuits.
3. Gensler’s Departure: SEC Chair Gary Gensler reiterated concerns over misconduct in the crypto sector in a January 9 interview.
4. Nigeria’s Crypto Regulation: Nigeria’s SEC warned on January 9 that non-compliant VASP license applicants face rejection.
5. U.S. Economic Updates:

• Strong December NFP numbers at 256K (vs. 160K forecast).
• Q3 foreign economic growth slowed in Q4 due to weaker manufacturing and consumer spending.

ETF Update

• BTC Spot ETFs:
• Net Inflows (Jan 6–10): $496.6M
• GBTC Outflows: $21.52B; Remaining Holdings: $19.346B
• IBIT Holdings: $52.948B
• Total Market Cap: $110.383B
• ETH Spot ETFs: Net Outflows: $195.3M

Upcoming Events

1. a16z GAMES SPEEDRUN 004 Accelerator: January 6–March 23, 2025, San Francisco.
2. Virtuals CN Meetup: January 13, Shanghai.
3. Story Shanghai Event: January 14, Shanghai.
4. Consensus Hong Kong: February 18–20, 2025, Hong Kong.

Project Updates

1. Puffer Finance Airdrop: Claim period ends January 14, 2025.
2. Celo Migration: Transition to Celo L2 on January 16, 2025.

Major Announcements

1. Google Ads Policy: From January 15, 2025, crypto ads targeting the UK must comply with FCA registration.
2. “Crypto Man” Film: Set to premiere January 15, 2025, based on a real-life crypto collapse.

Token Unlocks

1. Sei (SEI): Unlocking 224M tokens (~$86.68M, 2.25% supply) on January 15.
2. ApeCoin (APE): Unlocking 15.38M tokens (~$17.22M, 1.54% supply) on January 17.
3. Ondo (ONDO): Unlocking 2.57B tokens (~$3.2B, 25.73% supply) on January 19.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing comprehensive and professional analysis of the crypto market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidance for investors at all levels. Our professional content includes “Play to Earn Web3” tutorial series, in-depth analysis of crypto market trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto world or a seasoned investor seeking deep insights, Hotcoin is your reliable partner for understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Disclaimer

The crypto market is highly volatile, and investment involves risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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