Hotcoin Market Insight | May 5–9, 2025：BTC Gains $100K Since January — Bullish Signs Despite Fed Holding Rates

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of now, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.23 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) accounts for 63.51% of the total, amounting to $2.05 trillion. The total stablecoin market cap stands at $242.7 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.04%, and USDT represents 61.96% of that.

This week, BTC has shown a volatile upward trend and is currently priced at $103,158. ETH also exhibited a volatile upward movement, now priced at $2,335.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have seen gains, with a few exceptions. Notably:

• PNUT: +93.83% over 7 days
• MOG: +71.4%
• PEPE: +45.43%
• WIF: +32.29%

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $919.3 million this week, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $38.2 million.

The “Fear & Greed Index” on May 10 was 70 (up from last week). Market sentiment over the past week: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.

Market Forecast:

Stablecoins continued to expand this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows, while Ethereum ETFs had modest outflows. Influenced by Trump’s policy remarks on easing tariffs, BTC surged from $97,000 to $104,000 despite the Fed’s firm stance on no rate cuts. However, on-chain data shows that many addresses began taking profits once BTC broke above $100,000. For BTC to break previous highs, quantitative easing from the Fed and strong capital inflows are still required.

It’s worth noting that fundamentally strong altcoins saw significant gains this week.

The market remains in a state of greed. The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in June is only 17.1%, down from last week, making a June cut unlikely — attention will shift to potential cuts in July. With global quantitative easing, multiple U.S. states passing Bitcoin reserve legislation, and several public companies globally aggressively acquiring Bitcoin, the long-term outlook for 2025 remains optimistic. However, due to typically lower liquidity in the summer, partial profit-taking is advised.

Weekly Highlights

1. May 6 (CNBC) — Trump scheduled two crypto-themed dinners this month: one for wealthy political donors and another for “meme coin” millionaires.
2. May 6 (Nansen) — Top 5 chains by active addresses over the past 7 days:

• Solana: 24.215M
• Tron: 5.851M
• Base: 5.42M
• BNB Chain: 5.243M
• Aptos: 4.889M

1. May 8 — Stripe announced the launch of stablecoin financial accounts, supporting fiat and crypto transactions across 101 countries/regions.
2. May 7 — Vaulta (formerly EOS) announced the EOS token will be swapped 1:1 with the $A token on May 14, with no change to tokenomics.
3. May 7 — BTC dominance (BTC.D) has risen steadily since March 26, now at 65.4%, setting a new high for this bull cycle.
4. May 7 (Coindesk) — Visa’s venture arm invested in BVNK, a startup building stablecoin payment infrastructure, highlighting traditional finance’s move into blockchain-driven money flow.
5. May 7 — Japanese public company Metaplanet announced a further $53.4M purchase of 555 BTC.
6. May 9 — Gemini received regulatory approval to expand crypto derivatives trading in Europe with a MiFID II license. Derivatives such as perpetual futures will soon launch for advanced users.
7. May 9 — According to a statement released Thursday, BTC miners MARA and CleanSpark saw Q1 revenues grow by 30% and 63%, respectively.

Macroeconomics

1. May 3 — Warren Buffett stated that investments in Japan align with his philosophy and he won’t sell Japanese stocks in the next decade.
2. May 7 — Trump said, “We may renegotiate USMCA. We’ll remain friendly with Canada. I respect Canadians.”
3. May 7 — PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing ~1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity — policy rate cut by 0.1%.
4. May 8 — Trump stated that a 10% tariff is the new baseline, not necessarily a template for other countries.
5. May 8 — Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that Trump’s requests won’t influence the Fed’s rate decisions.
6. May 8 — The Fed held the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, meeting market expectations. This marks the third consecutive meeting with no change.
7. May 9 (CME FedWatch) — The probability of a 25bps rate cut in June stands at 17.1%, with an 82.9% chance of holding rates steady.

ETF Overview

From May 5–9:

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows: $919.3 million
• As of May 9:
• GBTC (Grayscale): total outflows $22.872 billion, current holdings $19.542 billion
• IBIT (BlackRock): current holdings $64.108 billion
• Total U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market cap: $123.258 billion
• U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflows: $38.2 million

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. Canada Crypto Week — May 11–17, 2025, Toronto, Canada
2. ETHWomen — May 13, 2025, Toronto, Canada
3. ULTILAND Event — May 15, 3:00 PM, Central Exchange Square Phase 3, Hong Kong — themed “A Star Is Born — AI x ARTFi x RWA”
4. Bitcoin 2025 — May 27–29, Las Vegas, USA
5. NFT NYC 2026 — June 23–25, 2025, New York, USA
6. Permissionless IV — June 24–26, 2025, New York, USA

Project Updates

1. VanEck will launch a new crypto-related ETF “NODE” on May 14, investing in 30–60 digital asset-linked stocks including exchanges, mining firms, and data centers.
2. NEAR will close its application window for proposals on its chain abstraction-based relayer infrastructure by May 15. The relayer aims to enable seamless gas fee sponsorship across multiple chains using base tokens (e.g., ETH, SOL) and major stablecoins (USDT/USDC).
3. Obol (distributed validator infrastructure) will conduct its TGE on May 15.

Key Events

• Galaxy plans to go public on Nasdaq on May 16.

Token Unlocks

On May 15:

• Starknet (STRK): 152M tokens, ~$27.69M, 1.63% of circulating supply
• Cyber (CYBER): 4.23M tokens, ~$6.2M, 4.23% of circulating supply
• Sei (SEI): 224M tokens, ~$56.01M, 2.25% of circulating supply
• Immutable (IMX): 24.52M tokens, ~$16.2M, 1.23% of circulating supply
• Solayer (LAYER): 46.39M tokens, ~$58.54M, 4.64% of circulating supply

On May 17:

• Apecoin (APE): 13.34M tokens, ~$9.9M, 1.54% of circulating supply

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Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid changes. All investments carry risk. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess market dynamics carefully, and implement sound risk management strategies to protect their assets.

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