Global Tariff Tensions Ease — U.S. CPI and PPI Miss Expectations, Market Uncertainty Rises | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: May 12–16, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of this week, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.34 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 61.55%. The stablecoin market cap reached $242.5 billion, marking a 0.12% increase over the past seven days. USDT remains dominant, accounting for 62.4% of the total.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a narrow range and is currently priced at $103,628, while Ethereum (ETH) showed mild upward momentum, now at $2,599.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most recorded declines this week, with a few exceptions:

• WIF: +44.8% (7-day)
• RAY: +19.4% (7-day)
• ETHFI: +114.5% (7-day)
• NXPC: +75.9% (7-day)

U.S. spot ETFs saw continued inflows:

• BTC spot ETF net inflow: $607.8 million
• ETH spot ETF net inflow: $41.8 million

The Fear & Greed Index was at 69 on May 16, down from last week, signaling sustained but slightly cooled market greed.

Market Outlook

This week saw modest growth in stablecoin issuance alongside strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and moderate inflows into Ethereum ETFs. With global trade tensions easing and April’s CPI and PPI data falling short of expectations, BTC held above the $103,000 level. Select altcoins posted healthy gains — most notably, Launchcoin, which surged 2,650% in a week, showcasing ongoing profit potential in Hotcoin’s New Coin Listings section.

Greed is still present but has tempered slightly. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June (25 bps) has dropped to 6.7%, down from last week, suggesting a cut is unlikely until at least July. Despite favorable macro data, the lack of new liquidity catalysts keeps volatility and market uncertainty elevated. While the 2025 bull market remains structurally intact, summer liquidity risks could make partial profit-taking a wise move for short-term traders.

This Week’s Highlights

• May 11 — Lido Exploit: DefiLlama founder 0xngmi disclosed a multisig oracle breach in Lido, where attackers stole 1.4 ETH before being detected. He proposed storing “canary funds” in multisigs for breach detection.
• May 12 — US-China Trade Talks: The White House announced a trade agreement with China during meetings in Geneva.
• May 13 — COIN Joins S&P 500: Coinbase (COIN) was added to the S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial. It’s the first pure crypto firm to enter the index. COIN rose 9.5% in after-hours trading.
• May 13 — Trump Denies Meme Coin Rumors: Truth Social denied involvement in launching a meme coin.
• May 13 — Regulatory Outlook: Former SEC Chair Paul Atkins proposed a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach.
• May 13 — Nirvana Labs Funding: Raised $6 million in a seed extension round led by Jump Crypto and Crucible Capital.
• May 14 — VIRTUAL Staking Launch: Virtuals Protocol launched VIRTUAL staking, offering veVIRTUAL for governance and rewards.
• May 14 — SEC ETF Delays: The SEC postponed decisions on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale’s Litecoin & Solana Trusts, and opened public comments for 21Shares’ Dogecoin ETF.
• May 14 — eToro IPO: eToro raised $310 million in its U.S. IPO, entering direct competition with Robinhood.
• May 14 — Ethereum Security Plan: The Ethereum Foundation unveiled its “Trillion-Dollar Security Plan” to improve ecosystem safety.
• May 15 — CMC Launch Debuts: CoinMarketCap introduced CMC Launch, spotlighting Aster ($AST), a decentralized perpetual exchange.
• May 15 — Crypto Policy and Trump: U.S. lawmakers highlighted that Trump’s crypto stance could complicate regulatory progress, though stablecoin and market structure bills may pass by August.
• May 16 — Coinbase Pressured: Coinbase faced two setbacks: an SEC investigation and a user data breach

Macroeconomic Updates

• May 13 — U.S. April CPI YoY: 2.3% (vs. 2.4% expected)
• May 15 — U.S. April PPI YoY: 2.4% (vs. 2.5% expected) — marking a third straight monthly decline and the lowest since September 2024.
• May 15 — SEC delayed the decision on 21Shares’ Polkadot (DOT) ETF.
• May 16 — Japanese firm Remixpoint purchased 32.83 BTC, raising holdings to 648.82 BTC (~¥99.1M JPY).
• May 16 — CME FedWatch Tool: 93.3% probability of rates remaining unchanged in June, 6.7% probability of a 25 bps cut.

ETF Flows

• US Bitcoin Spot ETFs (May 12–16): Net inflow of $607.8M
• GBTC (Grayscale): Outflows continued, now holding $19.635B (down from $22.944B)
• IBIT (BlackRock): Holdings stand at $65.435B
• Total Bitcoin ETF AUM: $125.131B
• Ethereum Spot ETFs: Net inflow of $41.8M

Upcoming Events

Conferences

• Bitcoin 2025 — May 27–29, Las Vegas, USA
• NFT NYC 2026 — June 23–25, New York, USA

Project Developments

• DeFi Development approved a 1:7 stock split. Shareholders will receive 6 additional shares on May 19. Adjusted trading resumes May 20 (pending Nasdaq approval)

Key Macro Events

• May 20 — Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision

Token Unlocks

• May 19
• Pyth Network (PYTH): 2.13B tokens ($399M, 58.62% of circulating supply)
• Pixels (PIXEL): 89.37M tokens ($4.94M, 1.79%)
• Polyhedra (ZKJ): 15.5M tokens ($31.9M, 1.55%)
• May 20
• Pyth Network (PYTH): 2.83B tokens ($472M, 28.33%)
• May 21
• Bittensor (TAO): 216K tokens ($95.47M, 1.03%)

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The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid changes. All investments carry risk. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess market dynamics carefully, and implement sound risk management strategies to protect their assets.

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