Hotcoin Research Market Insights | May 19–23, 2025 U.S.

2025-05-25 22:11

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2025-05-25 22:11

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Hotcoin Research Market Insights | May 19–23, 2025
U.S. Stablecoin “GENIUS Act” Advances Steadily — BTC Hits New All-Time High

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.34 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) accounts for 61.55%, approximately $2.06 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $245.9 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.1%. USDT makes up 62.26% of this value.

This week, BTC’s price showed a steady upward trend, currently priced at $110,915; ETH also trended upwards, currently at $2,670. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most saw gains, with a few exceptions. Notable 7-day gains:

DOG: +54.14%
MOO DENG: +40.66%
HYPE: +33.48%
WLD: +32.44%

This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.75 billion, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw $247.7 million in net inflows.
On May 23, the “Fear & Greed Index” was 76 (higher than last week), indicating 7 consecutive days of “Greed.”

Market Forecast

Stablecoin issuance continued this week, with significant inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs — the largest weekly inflows since January. BTC surged from $103,520 to a new all-time high of $111,313, a 7-day increase of 4.37%. The RSI stands at 44.88, indicating neutrality. The Altcoin Season Index is at 18. This price breakout was driven by institutional accumulation rather than retail investors. The market remains in a state of greed.

On Friday, the market experienced a brief dip following Trump’s suggestion to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, but later recovered. The weekend, typically a quiet trading period, saw what appears to be a healthy correction.

The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in June is only 5.3%, down from last week. Only 1–2 rate cuts are expected this year. However, progress on the U.S. GENIUS Act for stablecoins has boosted market confidence. In an interview with CNBC, crypto advocate David Sacks stated that if the GENIUS Act passes, it could drive trillions of dollars in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. He predicts the Act will provide a legal framework for stablecoins, enabling the market to grow from $200 billion (currently unregulated) to several trillion. Tether now holds nearly $120 billion in U.S. Treasuries, surpassing Germany to become the 19th largest holder. If the Act passes, it could trigger another euphoric bull run.

Weekly Recap — Major Events

May 19 — On-chain analyst Murphy reported BTC’s coin concentration dropped from 15.5% to 8.2% between May 7–14. This suggests BTC is moving away from its accumulation zone, often followed by price increases if the trend continues.
May 20 — The Block reported Anza, a spin-off from Solana Labs, announced what it calls “the biggest protocol change in Solana history” via a new base-layer architecture called Alpenglow.
May 20 — FOX Business’ Eleanor Terrett reported the U.S. Senate passed the cloture motion to end debate on the GENIUS Act, with at least 15 Democrats supporting it. The bill now proceeds to full debate and amendments.
May 20 — Jupiter announced full integration with time.fun, a tokenized time trading platform for creators, influencers, and experts.
May 20 — Farcaster announced an upcoming account verification feature requiring users to link two social accounts and hold at least $25 in a wallet.
May 20 — Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that BlackRock now holds 57% of Satoshi’s BTC stash, second only to Satoshi himself, and may become the largest holder by late 2026.
May 20 — Robinhood submitted a 42-page proposal to the SEC advocating for a federal “RWA Tokenization” framework to modernize U.S. capital markets.
May 22 — According to 8marketcap, Bitcoin has overtaken Amazon to become the world’s fifth-largest asset by market cap.
May 22 — Eleanor Terrett reported the GENIUS Act passed the Senate debate motion with 69 votes in favor and 31 against, advancing to the amendment phase.
May 22 — Cetus suffered a hack with over $260 million in losses, according to Lookonchain.
May 23 — Bloomberg’s James Seyffart stated the SEC delayed decisions on Bitwise and CoinShares’ XRP spot ETFs and CoinShares’ Litecoin spot ETF. However, it officially accepted Canary Capital’s TRX staking ETF proposal.

Macro Economy

May 19 — UK-listed company Vinanz purchased 16.9 BTC at an average price of $103,341, totaling $1.75 million, per Bitcoin For Corporations.
May 20 — The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, as expected.
May 20 — The People’s Bank of China lowered 1-year and 5-year LPRs from 3.1% and 3.6% to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.
May 21 — CME FedWatch indicated only a 5.3% chance of a June rate cut, with a 94.7% probability of no change.
May 22 — Japan’s 40-year government bond yield rose 6 basis points to 3.675%, the highest since 2007.

ETFs

From May 19–23:

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows: $2.75 billion
Grayscale (GBTC) total outflows: $23.033 billion, current holdings: $20.426 billion
BlackRock (IBIT) holdings: $70.058 billion
Total market cap of all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs: $134.838 billion
U.S. spot Ethereum ETF net inflows: $247.7 million

Looking Ahead — Upcoming Events

Bitcoin 2025 — May 27–29, Las Vegas, USA
NFT NYC 2026 — June 23–25, New York, USA
Permissionless IV — June 24–26, New York, USA
EthCC 8 — June 30 — July 3, Cannes, France

Project Updates

Ethereum devs plan to launch fusaka-devnet-0 on May 26.
eUSDe (by Ethena Labs and Ethereal) will mature on May 29, offering 50x Ethena rewards and Ethereal points.
lvlUSD/slvlUSD Pendle market expires May 29. lvlUSD is a non-yield stablecoin based on USDT/USDC; slvlUSD offers staking rewards from Aave V3 and aToken re-staking.
FTX will begin distributing over $5 billion to creditors on May 30.
ether.fi Season 5 ends May 31, 2025. Rewards include at least 10 million ETHFI, partner tokens, and King Protocol incentives.
Mint L2 airdrop final 25% unlocks on May 31.
Treasure Chain under Treasure DAO shuts down at 3:00 AM (Beijing Time) on May 31. Users must bridge ETH, MAGIC, SMOL, and NFTs before then.

Major Developments

The SEC opened public comments on Canary Funds’ Litecoin ETF, focusing on anti-fraud and market manipulation. Deadline: May 26 (rebuttals by June 9).
Kraken emailed FTX users confirming the next compensation round on May 30, covering all creditors regardless of claim size.
May 28 — U.S. Vice President Vance to speak at the “Bitcoin 2025” conference.
May 29 — The Fed will release minutes from its May monetary policy meeting.

Token Unlocks

Altlayer (ALT) — Unlocking 195 million tokens (~$7.21M), 1.95% of circulation, on May 25.
Axelar (ALX) — Unlocking 13.51 million tokens (~$5.33M), 1.12% of circulation, on May 27.
Open Campus (EDU) — Unlocking 21.02 million tokens (~$3.66M), 2.1% of circulation, on May 28.
Renzo (REZ) — Unlocking 423 million tokens (~$6.93M), 4.24% of circulation, on May 29.

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Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid changes. All investments carry risk. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess market dynamics carefully, and implement sound risk management strategies to protect their assets.