U.S. April Core PCE Meets Expectations — DJT Plans $2.5 Billion Bitcoin Treasury

Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: May 26–30, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

As of this week, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.34 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) dominance at 61.55% — equivalent to $2.06 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $247.3 billion, up 0.56% over the past 7 days. Among stablecoins, USDT holds a 62.14% share.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed a volatile downward trend this week, currently priced at $104,851. Ethereum (ETH) traded sideways, priced at $2,619. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number gained while most declined. Noteworthy 7-day performers include:

• SPX: +26.24%
• ZBCN: +133.19%
• WCT: +97.2%
• SNT: +84.9%

In the ETF sector:

• U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $145 million.
• U.S. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $285.8 million.

As of May 30, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 61, down from the previous week but still indicating “Greed”.

Market Forecast

Stablecoin issuance continued rising this week, indicating ongoing liquidity entering the crypto market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for the first time after several weeks of inflows, while Ethereum ETFs recorded inflows.

After reaching a new all-time high last week, Bitcoin saw some profit-taking, resulting in a 7-day decline of 3.73%. The RSI stands at 30.63, showing weak momentum. The Altcoin Season Index is at 18, highlighting BTC’s ongoing dominance.

The U.S. April Core PCE Price Index — a key inflation metric — came in at 2.5% YoY, matching expectations. The Fear & Greed Index has returned to a neutral stance.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June is only 2.2%, according to CME FedWatch. Ongoing uncertainty around tariffs continues to weigh on sentiment. Historically, BTC tends to retreat slightly after breaking new highs. It’s expected to fluctuate between $95,000–$105,000 in the coming week. Investors should monitor ETF flows and any updates on tariff policy from the Trump administration.

Weekly Highlights (May 26–30)

1. Circle Denies Acquisition Talks
   On May 27, PYMNTS reported that stablecoin issuer Circle denied media rumors suggesting informal acquisition discussions with Coinbase or Ripple. Circle confirmed it is continuing with its IPO plans filed in April.
2. Cetus Smart Contract Exploit
   On May 27, Cetus reported a security breach that occurred on May 22, targeting its CLMM liquidity pool via a sophisticated smart contract exploit. Emergency measures were taken promptly.
3. Trump Media Plans $2.5B Bitcoin Treasury
   On May 27, Bloomberg reported that Trump Media & Technology Group announced a plan to create a $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury, incorporating BTC into its reserves for financial stability and long-term value storage.
4. Circle Acquires Hashnote
   According to IPO filings disclosed on May 28, Circle acquired RWA issuer Hashnote in January 2025 for $9.9 million in cash and approximately 2.9 million shares of common stock, valued at $99.8 million.
5. U.S. VP Vance at Bitcoin 2025
   On May 29, Vice President Vance stated at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference that 50 million Americans currently own Bitcoin, and he expects this number to soon reach 100 million.
6. Circle Freezes $58M USDC Related to LIBRA
   On May 29, Decrypt reported that Circle froze two Solana wallets linked to the LIBRA token team, involving approximately 58 million USDC.
7. Lazarus Group Steals $5.2M in Crypto
   On May 29, on-chain analyst ZackXBT revealed that North Korean hacking group Lazarus launched a cyberattack on May 24, stealing over $5.2 million from an individual crypto trader.
8. BlackRock Eyes 10% Stake in Circle IPO
   Bloomberg reported on May 29 that BlackRock plans to acquire a 10% stake in Circle’s upcoming IPO.
9. Elon Musk Resigns from Government Role
   White House officials confirmed on May 29 that Elon Musk would officially step down from his advisory role later that evening.
10. SEC Clarifies PoS Staking Not a Security
    On May 30, journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance clarified that staking activities on certain Proof-of-Stake blockchains do not constitute securities transactions.
11. SEC Moves to Dismiss Binance Lawsuit
    Also on May 30, The Block reported that the SEC submitted court documents requesting dismissal of its lawsuit against Binance and former CEO Changpeng Zhao.
12. Webus Plans $300M XRP-Backed Fund
    On May 30, Webus International Limited announced it is exploring a $300 million funding strategy backed by XRP reserves to support its global payments infrastructure.

Macroeconomic Developments

1. U.S. Revokes Chinese Student Visas
   On May 29, the U.S. State Department and Department of Homeland Security jointly announced the revocation of student visas for Chinese nationals in sensitive academic fields.
2. Inflation Trend Slowing
   On May 30, Fed commentator Nick Timiraos stated that after a strong start to the year, inflation continues to decelerate, consistent with Fed projections.
3. April Core PCE Matches Forecasts
   The Core PCE Price Index rose 2.5% YoY, matching expectations. The previous figure was revised from 2.6% to 2.7%.
4. Trump Not Considering 145% China Tariff
   On May 31, CNN reported that former President Trump is not considering reinstating a 145% tariff on Chinese goods.
5. Fed Rate Cut Probability Remains Low
   According to CME FedWatch on May 31, there is only a 2.2% chance of a rate cut in June, with a 97.8% chance the rate remains unchanged.

ETF Flows (May 26–30)

• U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF:
• Net outflow: $145 million
• Grayscale (GBTC) total outflow: $23.168 billion
• GBTC holdings: $19.425 billion
• BlackRock (IBIT) holdings: $69.468 billion
• Total U.S. Bitcoin ETF Market Cap: $131.289 billion
• U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF:
• Net inflow: $285.8 million

Looking Ahead

📅 Upcoming Events

1. June 2: Launch of EASY Residency by YZi Labs in Silicon Valley, tailored for top 1% of founders in Web3, AI, and healthcare.
2. June 4–6: Non Fungible Conference 2025 in Lisbon, Portugal.
3. June 23–25: NFT NYC 2026 in New York City.
4. June 24–26: Permissionless IV in New York City.
5. June 30 — July 3: EthCC 8 in Cannes, France.

🛠 Project Update

• Moonbeam’s Polkadot parachain lease expires on June 5, 2025.

📈 Key Global Economic Events

1. June 2: Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at the Bank of Korea International Conference.
2. June 3: Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes from June policy meeting.
3. June 4: Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision.
4. June 5: Federal Reserve Beige Book released.
5. June 5: European Central Bank releases interest rate decision.

🔓 Token Unlocks

About Us

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