Is a “Perfect Narrative” Taking Shape at the Macro Level? Will the Crypto Market Usher in a Quarterly Rally?

Crypto Market Performance

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $4.01 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) dominating 57.21% at $2.29 trillion. Stablecoins hold a combined market cap of $287.8 billion, down 0.12% over the past week — the first decline in nearly three months. USDT remains the leader, accounting for 58.88% of the stablecoin sector.

Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap, most posted gains. Standout performers included:

• MYX: +1324% (7D)
• WLD: +85.13% (7D)
• MNT: +35.1% (7D)
• ATH: +87.11% (7D)
• PLUME: +42.85% (7D)

Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $2.324 billion in net inflows, and Ethereum spot ETFs saw $637.5 million in net inflows during the week.

Market Forecast (September 15–19, 2025)

• Indicators: The RSI sits at 63.05, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish trend. The Fear & Greed Index rose to 53, while the Altcoin Season Index surged to 78, signaling FOMO conditions.
• Macro Events: The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on September 17. Markets currently price in a 96.4% probability of a 25 bps cut.
• A dovish cut could lift crypto markets above resistance.
• A hawkish surprise (less likely) may trigger corrections.

Core Ranges

• BTC: $112,000 — $117,000
• ETH: $4,500 — $4,800
• SOL: $220 — $250

Strategies

• Conservative: Accumulate near support (BTC ≤ $112K, ETH ≤ $4.5K, SOL ≤ $220) with a 3–5% stop-loss below support.
• Aggressive: If resistance breaks (BTC > $117K, ETH > $4.8K, SOL > $250) on strong volume, go long with small positions.
• Risk Management: Avoid high leverage — volatility could spike around the Fed meeting.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. September 8 — Stablecoin issuers Paxos, Frax Finance, and Agora are competing for the right to issue Hyperliquid’s upcoming USDH stablecoin.
2. September 8 — Kinto, a modular trading platform in the Arbitrum ecosystem, announced it will shut down on September 30 following a July smart contract attack that drained 577 ETH (~$1.55M). Founder Recuero pledged partial compensation for victims after closure.
3. September 11 — WLFI launched Project Wings on Solana with ecosystem partners. The trader-focused initiative aims to deliver a more dynamic market experience. Currently, the USD1 pair is live on BONK.fun and Raydium Launchlab, where users can trade.
4. September 11 — SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins, at the OECD Roundtable on Global Financial Markets, emphasized that the convergence of blockchain and AI will drive a new boom. He reaffirmed the SEC’s determination to seize these opportunities.
5. September 12 — Gold prices surpassed their inflation-adjusted peak from 45 years ago. Amid rising concerns over the U.S. economic outlook, gold has extended its three-year bull run into uncharted territory.
6. September 10 — The U.S. SEC postponed its review of Franklin Spot SOL and XRP ETF applications from September 15 to November 14, 2025.

Macroeconomics

1. September 9 — The preliminary benchmark revision of U.S. non-farm payrolls for 2025 showed -911,000, versus an expected -700,000.
2. September 10 — U.S. PPI (August) came in at 2.6% YoY, below expectations of 3.3% and down from the prior 3.3%.
3. September 11 — U.S. CPI (August, unadjusted) was 2.9%, the highest since January, in line with expectations.
4. September 11 — The European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% for the second consecutive meeting, as officials assessed the impact of the EU–U.S. trade agreement.

ETFs

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows (September 8–12, 2025)

During the week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.324 billion.

As of September 12:

• GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $23.947 billion, with current holdings at $20.803 billion.
• IBIT (BlackRock) leads the market with $88.187 billion in assets.
• The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs now stands at $153.567 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $637.5 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. EDCON 2025 — Osaka, Japan, September 16–19: The global Ethereum community will gather to discuss protocol upgrades, ecosystem growth, and the future of Web3.
2. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 — Seoul, September 22–28.
3. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 — Singapore, October 1–2.

Project Progress

1. Mac House, a national clothing retailer in Japan, will begin purchasing Bitcoin on September 17, investing ¥1.715 billion (~$110M).
2. The deadline to claim Union’s U Drop airdrop is September 18.

Key Macro Events

1. Bank of Canada interest rate decision — September 17, 9:45 PM.
2. U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) — September 18, 2:00 AM.
3. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (week ending September 13) — September 18, 8:30 PM.

Token Unlocks

• September 15 — Starknet (STRK): 127M tokens unlocked (~$17.04M, 5.98% of supply).
• September 15 — Sei (SEI): 55.56M tokens unlocked (~$18.64M, 1.18% of supply).
• September 16 — Arbitrum (ARB): 92.65M tokens unlocked (~$49.06M, 2.03% of supply).
• September 17 — ZKsync (ZK): 173M tokens unlocked (~$10.52M, 3.61% of supply).
• September 18 — Fasttoken (FTN): 20M tokens unlocked (~$89.80M, 2.08% of supply).
• September 20 — Velo (VELO): 3B tokens unlocked (~$46.48M, 13.63% of supply).

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Elite Picks — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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